Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Example: Second Trade on GBPUSD using Fibonacci



This trade was more based on that from the INO.com video,
http://www.ino.com/info/285/CD3393/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
along with some added rules. Keep in mind these setups work good when they work but don't work all the time.

1. I drew my fib retracement from point A to point B which is a larger swing than the first trade. We have a swing high at point A and a swing low at point B. I used the 50 SMA to help gauge where I would draw my line that is I looked for a swing high above the 50sma and a swing low below. I could have used any moving average to do that. Please note that Jeff Manson uses that technique to identify the swings and there is more to his trading rules which I am not using.
2. I waited to see if price will retrace to the 50% fib level and give signs that resistance is met there. It did. In fact the green bar with the wick on top indicated that there is selling pressure or resistance. This is my setup bar.
3. I placed a sell stop at the low of the previous green bar. The sell stop could had been at the low of the setup bar but I was chicken and wanted to be a little more conservative.
4. My stop was a little above the 50% level (about 20pips from entry) and my target was near the 161.8% level. The risk/reward ratio was way more than 3:1
5. Sell order triggered at 1.4358. I took first exit 10 pips away and moved stop to break even.
6. Price eventually reversed and I got stopped out at break even.

Overall that was two nice trades because they were executed as planned. What I've learnt from these two trades is WHEN FOLLOWING TRADING RULES BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE SETUP.

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